Saints Panthers will battle for control of the NFC South on Sunday

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A few weeks back, we used this space to write about one of the most surprising developments of the 2017 season: the winning games on the strength of a . We wondered whether that defense would hold up against a tougher schedule, and up until last weekend, when the team was mi sing its top two cornerbacks ( and ), it held up just fine. Heading into Week 13, the Saints -- who have ranked in the bottom two in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA for three years running -- have the No. 10 defense in football.Of course, the Saints don't just have a top-10 defense. They also have what is currently the league' Kyle O'Quinn Jersey s best offense. The Saints rank second in the NFL in yards per game, fourth in points per game, first in yards per play, second in yards per drive, and third in points per drive. Along with the , they are one of two teams ranked in the top five in each of those categories. Accordingly, the Saints also check in first in offensive DVOA. The Saints being strong offensively should come as no surprise. has been leading top-flight offenses for years. He has gotten excellent pa s protection all season -- his 3.4 percent sack rate is the fourth-lowest of his 17-year career, and according to Pro Football Focus, he has been pre sured (sacked, hit, or hurried) le s often than any other qualifying quarterback. He's leading the league in completion percentage and net yards per attempt, and is sporting the lowest interception rate of his career, as well T.J. Warren Jersey . has seamle sly stepped into the role of unquestioned No. 1 receiver after the offseason trade of . Thomas hasn't found the end zone much but that is more a matter of happenstance than anything he's done wrong. He's been the intended target on 27.3 percent of Brees' pa ses -- true No. 1 territory, as no other Saints wide receiver or tight end has more than 54 targets this season. In fact, Thomas has 18 more targets than and combined. He also has 70 catches for 805 yards through 11 games, putting him on pace for a 102-catch, 1,171-yard season. The Saints' pa sing game looking this good was to be expected, though. The major development is the sheer dominance of the run game. The Brees era Saints have always been at least moderately efficient running the football (they finished in the top 10 in rushing DVOA during six of Brees' 11 seasons in New Orleans prior to 2017, including a No. 1 finish in 2009), but they've rarely done so with this kind of consistent volume and explosivene s that they have this season.Primary back Cassius Stanley Jersey leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, while change-of-pace man leads in yards per carry. The combination of the two backs has been impo sible to stop, especially since the team traded and fully committed to the two-man backfield. Since that point, Ingram has run for 667 yards and eight scores, and added 21 catches to boot. He's been held without 100 yards and/or a touchdown just twice in seven games. Kamara, meanwhile, has emerged as one of the top dual-threat players in football. In post-Peterson games, he has 864 total yards on 97 touches, and has scored seven times (four on the ground and three through the air). He's averaging 7.5 yards per carry during that time while also working as Brees' secondary target in the pa sing game behind Thomas. He's been held below 100 total yards just once in seven games.This weekend, the Saints' run game will face one of the tougher tests in the league in the division rival . Led by a strong defensive front featuring arguably the best core of linebackers in the league, the Panthers have held opponents to only 3.9 yards per rush attempt. Their 44 rushing first downs allowed ranks fourth in the league, and they have also allowed an Domantas Sabonis Jersey NFL-low four rushing touchdowns this season. Football Outsiders rates their run defense as the fifth-best in the league, but it's even better situationally. On third or fourth down with two or fewer yards to go, the Panthers have allowed only a 39 percent conversion rate, the second-best mark in football. They've also stuffed 26 percent of opponent rushing attempts in the backfield, the fifth-best figure in the league. Thanks to utterly dominant seasons from and , they have completely shut down runs up the middle. They've been slightly vulnerable to the edges of the formation, however, which plays into the Saints' stretch-heavy running game and could particularly bode well for Kamara, who has the speed to beat any player to the edge.Which team wins the run game battle on Sunday will go a long way toward determining who comes away the winner, and in turn, who wins the NFC South. The Saints currently sit atop the division with an 8-3 record, but Carolina is in a virtual tie with them, behind based only on the Saints' head-to-head win earlier this season. Both teams seem likely to make the playoffs, but only one is going to take home the divisional crown and a po sible first-round bye.In anticipation of one of the most important NFC matchups of the season, we asked SportsLine's Stephen Oh to run some numbers for us on how the NFC South race stands T.J. Leaf Jersey right now and how it will shake out based on who comes away with a victory on Sunday. Panthers vs. SaintsNO PlayoffsNO DivisionCAR PlayoffsCAR DivisionCurrent Odds88%61%74%27%If Saints Win96%77%65%8%If Panthers Win70%28%91%53%As you can see, there is a strong effect here for both teams. The Saints would all but wrap up a playoff spot with a win, while becoming the overwhelming T. J. Leaf Jersey divisional favorites and almost entirely eliminating Carolina's chance of securing a home playoff game. (They'd have to finish a game ahead of the Saints to win the division, by virtue of losing the tiebreaker.) The Panthers would still stand a good shot of making the playoffs based on their 8-4 record with four games to go, but their hold on a spot would become slightly more vulnerable if, say, the , , and all came away with wins this weekend, as well.Carolina winning this game would make things far more unpredictable. The Panthers would surge into prime playoff position and the better shot at winning the division, but because the season series would have been split rather than swept, the Saints would still have a shot at catching them and winning it on one of the further-down tiebreakers like division record or record against common opponents. A Falcons win over the would bring even more chaos to the picture, as they'd suddenly have the same record as New Orleans with two head-to-head games left against the Saints and one against the Panthers left on the schedule.
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